Publication: Identifying core dynamics of urban transition

How can we accelerate the sustainability transitions of cities at a global scale? Studying other cities' successes and failures is one of the fastest ways to learn and implement policies that increase sustainability. But to do so, we must identify fundamental mechanisms that shape sustainability transitions. Numerous case studies have found a range of factors that are specific to certain cities and their situations, but we do not know whether they are applicable to other cities. Additionally, multiple factors contribute to the trajectory of any given city, but we do not know how these factors affect one another.

The study by ANU researchers as part of the ARC Laureate Project tested a unified framework which can identify drivers and barriers of sustainability transitions with the hope it will facilitate policy learning and transfer across cities. The paper by the Mokhles, Nguyen, Guo, and Bai titled Identifying core dynamics of urban transition was recently published in the journal Nature Urban Sustainability, providing “a proof-of-concept analysis for systematically identifying and comparing the mechanisms that support or impede urban climate transitions.”

The study introduces the concept of core dynamics to the field of urban sustainability transitions. Core dynamics refer to the “finest recurring causal feedback structures that serve as building blocks that collectively shape a city’s transition trajectory”. These abstracted mechanisms reconceptualise urban climate transitions as an outcome of causal feedback loops. The modular nature of core dynamics also allows for an examination of the evolution of transition mechanisms across contexts.

Eleven core dynamic processes are identified by investigating Copenhagen (Denmark) as an illustrative base case, and comparing its trajectory against Canberra (Australia) and Shenzhen (China). This was done by first identifying a variety of transitions dynamics that make up Copenhagen’s sustainability trajectory through detailed analysis, and these were abstracted into recurring feedback loops. Causal loops were identified for Canberra and Shenzhen in a similar fashion and compared against the abstracted version from Copenhagen to further refine core dynamics iteratively over multiple rounds. The objective was to identify recurrent and transferable feedback mechanisms shaping urban transition trajectories.

The eleven core dynamics, grouped into four domains are:

• Ambition and governance

• Multi-level governance

• Local governance legitimacy

• Policy-infrastructure co-evolution

• Lifestyle-infrastructure co-evolution

• Technology-market co-evolution

• Multi-actor partnership

• Inter-city collaboration

• Participatory governance legitimacy

• Public mobilization corrective

• Grassroot establishment

The key contributions of the study as identified by the authors are the identification of core dynamics as an empirical concept, and systematising these into “a causal feedback structure that allows for meaningful comparison across cities, sectors, and transition contexts.” That is, the framework can potentially function as a way for any cities to identify the dynamics that are more or less dominant in their context, while impeding transition. This could, for example, lead to the identification of bottle necks that are stifling sustainability transitions in a particular city, and be the starting point for finding solutions.

There are a few caveats to the study meaning that the framework is still in its early stages to being truly global in utility. The eleven core dynamics will need to be tested empirically in a broader range of cities. Cities of the Global South should be investigated in particular, as the case study cities of Copenhagen, Canberra, and Shenzhen skew the results to wealthy and well-resourced cities. This would be crucial for identifying possible core dynamics unique to developing cities.

The authors additionally stress that the primary focus of this study was identifying the finest recurring feedback structures that characeterise urban transitions, and it does not explain the full transition trajectory of any given city. Future research should examine “whether and how different combinations of core dynamics collectively explain the evolution of transition pathways in particular urban contexts.”

Reference

Mokhles, S., Nguyen, T.M.P., Guo, Y. et al. Identifying core dynamics of urban transition. npj Urban Sustain  (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-026-00445-7