New Study in Science: Earth’s frozen landscapes decline beyond safe planetary limits
A major study just published in Science warns that the health of the frozen parts of the planet are pushed beyond safe limits. The cryosphere, which includes ice sheets, mountain glaciers, sea ice, permafrost, and snow cover, is degrading at such a rate that puts communities, ecosystems, and valuable freshwater resources at risk. The degradation of the cryosphere is driven predominantly by human-induced climate change, in addition to regional human disturbances including black carbon emissions and industrial and infrastructure expansion.
“The cryosphere has already exceeded its planetary safe operating space, threatening the frozen foundations of our planet that have supported human civilisations for millennia,” said Dr. Bo Su, lead author of the paper and researcher at Stockholm Resilience Centre and Beijing Normal University.
While Earth's ice and snow systems have long been overlooked compared to oceans and atmosphere, the new framework—compiled by an interdisciplinary and international research team of more than 30 scientists including ARC Laureate Fellow Distinguished Professor Xuemei Bai—shows that destabilising these frozen regions directly threatens planetary stability and habitability, offering a clearer warning system for how much strain the planet can take.
The study is a timely and urgent reminder to policymakers meeting now at COP31 in Türkiye to develop precautionary targets and strategies to limit emissions of greenhouse gases and black carbon and reduce local human disturbances.
Reference
Su, B., Rockström, J., Chen, D., Fetzer, I., Feng, H., Hugelius, G., Winkelmann, R., Norström, A. V., Xiao, C., Hanna, E., Alverson, K., Box, J. E., Qin, D., Sommerkorn, M., Andreassen, L. M., Heil, P., Yao, T., Richardson, K., Lade, S. J., Bai, X., Gupta, J., Stewart-Koster, B., Zheng, Z., Pomeroy, J., Mackintosh, A., Oki, T., Mukherji, A., Jackson, M., Rocha, J. C., Donges, J. F., & Wang-Erlandsson, L. (2026). The cryosphere beyond a planetary safe operating space. Science, Article eaef5636. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aef5636
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